Better Than We Think
Which headline are you more likely to see?
PANDEMIC DEATHS APPROACH SEVEN MILLION!
Or:
NINETY-NINE PERCENT OF ALL COVID-19 VICTIMS SURVIVE
Both statistics are true, although the media tend to sensationalize threats and dangers. As a result, most people assume the world is in worse shape than the facts support. A Swedish physician, Hans Rosling, devoted his life to correcting misconceptions about the state of the world, delivering TED talks and speaking to leaders at the UN and WHO. After reading his book Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, I decided that the Thanksgiving season would be an excellent time to reflect on the good news that Rosling and his team uncovered.
As he spoke to groups around the world, Dr. Rosling would ask the audience to answer a series of fact questions. Here’s a sampling to test your knowledge. How would you answer these questions?
1. In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has…
□ A. Almost doubled
□ B. Remained more or less the same
□ C. Almost halved
2. What is the average life expectancy, globally, of people alive today?
□ A. 50 years
□ B. 60 years
□ C. 70 years
3. How did the number of deaths per year from natural disasters change over the last hundred years?
□ A. More than doubled
□ B. Remained about the same
□ C. Decreased to less than half
4. How many of the world’s 1-year-old children have been vaccinated against some disease?
□ A. 20 percent
□ B. 50 percent
□ C. 80 percent
5. How many people in the world have some access to electricity?
□ A. 20 percent
□ B. 50 percent
□ C. 80 percent
How did you do on the test? To get a perfect score, you should have chosen “C”—the most optimistic, positive response—for each of the answers. If you didn’t score well, don’t feel bad: you’re in good company. Dr. Rosling has given similar tests to thousands of people in many countries, and most people do very poorly.
For example, only 11 percent of Americans answer question number 3 correctly. If the world’s population has quadrupled in the last 100 years, shouldn’t we expect deaths from natural disasters to increase, not decrease? Yet the facts show otherwise.
Or consider trends in global poverty. Rosling writes, “Over the past twenty years, the proportion of the global population living in extreme poverty has halved. This is absolutely revolutionary. I consider it to be the most important change that has happened in the world in my lifetime. It is also a pretty basic fact to know about life on Earth. But people do not know it.…When we polled in the United Sates, only 5 percent picked the right answer.”
Even more surprising, Rosling found that executives in multinational companies, journalists, activists, and even senior policy analysts got most of the answers wrong, often scoring worse than the general public. Some of the worst scores came from a group of Nobel laureates and medical researchers. No wonder Bill Gates called Factfulness, “One of the most important books I’ve ever read—an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world.”
When Rosling asked what percentage of the world population lives in low-income countries, the average guess was 59 percent; the real figure is 9 percent. The vast majority of the world’s population lives in middle-income countries, not in extreme poverty.
Worldwide, infant mortality has plummeted. Out of every 100 babies born in 1950, fifteen died before reaching their first birthday; by 2016 that number had fallen to three out of every hundred. Thanks to vaccinations, more children survive to adulthood, and as a result families are having fewer children, which slows population growth. Huge strides have been made in education: 90 percent of girls of primary school age now attend school, and 92 percent of boys (a few countries, like Afghanistan, limit girls’ education).
And despite the prominent news stories about floods, earthquakes, storms, and wildfires, the actual number of deaths from natural disasters is one-fourth of what it was 100 years ago. No, nature has not calmed down, but fewer people live in extreme poverty, and nations and NGOs are better prepared for disasters. Reinforced buildings limit damage from earthquakes and tsunamis; advance warning systems give people time to evacuate before floods and tsunamis hit.
Rosling’s book includes pages of charts that show bad things decreasing (oil spills, HIV infections, battle deaths, plane crash deaths, child labor, hunger) and good things increasing (protected nature, women’s right to vote, literacy, child cancer survival, clean water, immunization). He is no Panglossian optimist, and has visited war zones, famine areas, and hospitals during disease outbreaks. Yet he makes a strong case that all the recent efforts toward improving the lot of humanity have had a remarkable effect.
(Sadly, Hans Rosling died of pancreatic cancer just before his book was published. His son and daughter-in-law carry on the work and run the website www.gapminder.org.)
As a journalist, I’ve visited places where mission organizations educate children, run hospitals and clinics, fight sexual trafficking, dig wells, feed prisoners, and respond to disasters both natural and human-caused. International Justice Mission, World Vision, The Salvation Army, Prison Fellowship International, Joni and Friends, Mennonite Central Committee, Mercy Ships, World Relief—these are just a few of the many NGOs that deploy thousands to serve on the front lines of human need.
This Thanksgiving, I paused to give thanks for them and their donors back home. They may not attract the headlines, but they have played a large part in making the world a safer, better place.
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35 responses to “Better Than We Think”
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About Philip Yancey
For Yancey, reading offered a window to a different world. So, he devoured books that opened his mind, challenged his upbringing, and went against what he had been taught. A sense of betrayal engulfed him.
I love your perspective. News and social media often take the opposite approach.
As someone who lost two loved ones to COVID I would caution that 1% of a billion or even a million is still a very large number. I in no way mean this to discredit your point. I love where your head is at and I will probably read the book.
Blessings!
Great perspective!
Thank you for the reminder!
A lifetime ago, literally, when I was a copy editor/journalist for a small, Gannett newspaper in Louisiana, I remember sitting in an editorial meeting hearing the managing editor share pointers with writers on angles they needed to take with their reporting. Making the news took precedent over the reporting of local and national matters. That I ended up getting fired from that job is what eventually launched me into a new career. Though I have no answers to why the media have changed so much over the past 30 years, I don’t believe that we are without hope or are on a course for self destruction. If my reading of the Bible is correct, the ache in my heart for those who are hungry or who are battling sickness, cancer, or some other malady, isn’t lost on a God who is indifferent to life’s ills. No, God continues to work all things together for good, even when the “facts” confound us and are determined to tell us differently.
Thank you so much Philip,
What a relief !!!
Things are so much better than I thought. How did I go on this test ?
Not well at all.
In so many ways Philip, you bring joy to the heart.
What an interesting email ! I have read most of your books and look forward to this one as it will be well written as usual! You have a way of explaining even in historical readings being easier to read , bringing it to such an interesting read for your many readers.
Sending prayers to you for your Parkinson’s illness, that you might to might continue to live into our Saviors love and promises .
Your wrings always reflect a positive view of life.! I have read most of your books, and always feel inspired in reading the books.
Your worldview is always positive. I have enjoyed your books, especially “Whatever Became of Grace.” Your views on the church are right on, and you have chronicled the issues well. I always look forward to reading more of your thoughts.
Thank you for this enlightening information. In spite of the politically unjust and violent climate Jesus was born and raised in, He told His followers “in the world you will have tribulation. But take heart; I have overcome the world.” I pray that Christ followers would incline our thoughts more towards God’s promises, hope, and peace. That we not only take heart, but take to heart the good news of the gospel and bring that light into the dark places He calls us. I’m convicted of how often our conversations are centered on media talking points, and ask God to bring us to Phil. 4:8. Fill us to overflowing with God’s peace.
The vast exponential savagery and blood thirsty evil behavior, emotional arousal, and prideful display of pure evil by Hamas against Israel rationalized by some pro-Hamas American demonstrators as in some way moral equivalent disputes FACTFULNESS’s good news. Until Islam reforms itself worldwide from fundamentalist radical Islamo-Fascism among its brothers and sisters , Islam’s Allah can not join in God’s grace through Jesus.
Thank you for trying to help us be more positive. I appreciate it…..I always need that….. especially after almost three years of massive anxiety and depression from coming off an anti depressant too quickly! ugh. It’s been tough.
Interestingly i knew that C was the answer to every question…but it doesn’t help in my depressive state as MY mind only goes to the whatever percent of people that are miserable or unhappy at war or have cancer or are starving in Africa, or are being sex-trafficked and those aging and dying of covid and other things….. Even when i read about all the good, and how much better and safer the world is, and how many more rights woman have, and all that…my heart still just aches for the other ones who dont have food, or who do have cancer, or are miserably sick in chronic pain, or at war, or like Joni, (my neighbor!) in a wheelchair for LIFE!! I long for them to have better lives….. and i feel that guilt that’s been put out there that I shouldn’t be so blessed and allowed to live in my entitled state! (which i basically do).
I’m not sure how to deal with that…..guessing I need a good therapist 🙂
I haven’t found a good enough one yet in 65 years.
But I do just keep going back to God and that’s the comfort I have here, in this life, in this world. <3 there is no better comfort than the love and death of God.
Thank you Phillip,
I have no problem believing these details. Fear sells better than the truth.
There are more details out there that need prayerful and diligent checking before being accepted without any investigation.
George
“As a journalist, I’ve visited places where mission organizations educate children, run hospitals and clinics, fight sexual trafficking, dig wells, feed prisoners, and respond to disasters both natural and human-caused. International Justice Mission, World Vision, The Salvation Army, Prison Fellowship International, Joni and Friends, Mennonite Central Committee, Mercy Ships, World Relief—these are just a few of the many NGOs that deploy thousands to serve on the front lines of human need.”
Thank you for these facts aswell. I too am thankfully appreciative for their selfless, honorable work in the earth. 🙏
Cape Town South Africa 🇿🇦
Thanks, Philip, for calling attention to this book! It is so obvious that the evil one wants to keep all of us despairing and hopeless!
Thank you for sharing this positive perspective. I got 80% correct. I am looking forward to the 2020 data. This sure contradicts the doom and gloom persons who are bent on spreading fear while making money in some cases.
Thank you for this! So much to be thankful for! I hope that one day we’ll be able to add that the majority of people around the world have heard about Jesus.
If the media reports something, I believe the opposite. They’re fear mongers with a worldwide agenda. Thank you for your enlightening blog post, Phil.
Great INFO !! Accurate !
His book was eye-opening the day I read it. Fits well with Pinker’s Better Angels of Our Nature. Though w/o Pinker’s philosophical biases.
Thanks for the blog posting. I’m going to use it next time asked to teach a class at church.
Thanks for this good news! I only got the first two questions right. I’ve requested the book from my local library, so I can correct the record and spread the good news.
Thank you!!! So good to see this and I will be reading the book! So needed!
Thanks, Philip, for sharing this! How encouraging. Reminds me of what Adam Hamilton in his book “Unafraid” quotes Jerre Stead with IHS Market as saying: “Facts are our friends.”
Thank you for so often stretching my heart and mind – and for great Christmas gift ideas! You have helped me to grow over the years.
I would venture to guess that your average Ukrainian, Sudanese, Afghan or Israeli isn’t so encouraged about life in general…
I would’ve included your average Palestinian Arab as well…
But based on the fact two-thirds to 75% of them are happy about Oct 7th… the worst day for Jews since the Holocaust…I’m disinclined to include them…
I do, however, pity the poor Palestinian Arab remnant that deals with the reality of it all and has’to suffer the consequences…
This was so enlightening and encouraging. We have much to be
thankful for, and we still have a lot of work to do. We miss you! Come
and see us.
Thank You, Philip for this latest post.
With your vast audience and influence and respect that you carry, the article had greater impact and value, and I am thankful to God for your positive voice in carrying the truth. Blessings on you!
Thank you Philip for this. It is good to know that in some respects, things have greatly improved and you make a fair point about our miscalculation of how bad / good life is in particular areas. Nevertheless, as you suggest in your blog this is only a partial picture of life on planet earth today. For example, we may have improved dealing with floods and drought, but the other natural disaster mortality rates haven’t improved much and in some cases are worse. Neither do you go into any detail of man made disasters – war, progressive and irreversible destruction of our environment, change to our climate, mass migration to escape persecution and oppression, violence on our streets and in our homes – the list goes on. I like the idea of thankfulness for improvements, but the reality of life is that in spite of these, we are still on course for our self destruction.
Thanks for a positive blog!
Thank you for helping us receive the facts. It really is hard to know about our world in its current atmosphere. You have always been a voice of reason in the midst of so many voices clamoring for our attention. We appreciate hearing from you, because we trust you.
…. I love the message and am in agreement, that by all measures, life is better than we are lead to believe. I wonder how we’re doing on the question of ‘spirituality and having a true moral compass’…. if we have improved access to clean water, but have not moved the needle in the the quest for God … we achieved earthly goals. I fully understand that you can’t witness to someone who is thirsty…. but if they get “clean water” and not “living water” … are we making progress. Comments of all kind are welcomed.
This was an encouraging article although I got two wrong! I’m passing on to others. Thank you for your writing. It has made a difference in my life.
I wish your post could make the headlines….. thank you for sharing this.
Thank you Philip an encouraging message for us all, do you think that there is more violence and cruelty now or do we hear more bad news because of the Internet and the press/TV news?
Factfulness was published before the wars in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza. Even including them, though, we are living in one of the most peaceful times in recorded history. I don’t know how you would measure the gross total of violence and cruelty, though.
Eye opening
Cup of cold water this is – thanks